Bitcoin is touching the $69,000 level. It is propelled by an inflation reading from the United States. More and more people are paying attention to the need to hedge their funds against a global recession.
The basis for growth and further possible scenarios
The economic data published in the United States have always been crucial not only for the local but also for the global markets. Thus, on November 10 the results of the CPI inflation were released. These results are far from optimistic, indicating that it has already reached the level of 6.2%. Such a high level of the indicator has a right to raise concerns and fears whether this is a temporary phenomenon or a sign of impending global stagnation.
What does bitcoin have to say about it? Like other scarce assets, Bitcoin has responded with a dynamic increase in its value, establishing an ATH of $69,000 at the time of writing this article.
Looking at the chart, we can see that the leading cryptocurrency has not seen any strong price correction for quite some time. Meanwhile, indicators suggest that it may be just around the corner. Bearish divergence on RSI (yellow lines), as well as Bollinger Bands tell us about it. Slightly different is the MACD, which after a bullish cross started its potential upward rally. It is worth drawing a line on the chart between the 2017 peak and the local top from mid-April (white line). It can indicate us resistance at the level currently exceeding $72,500. The probability of a rebound from the indicated zone is highly likely.
Where to look for support?
So far, the area of USD 60,000 has been doing very well. For the time being, this is the region to watch closely.
USD 3 trillion total capitalization of cryptocurrencies!
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market also rose to record levels, touching $3 trillion. For its chart, it is worth noting the trend line against which the price action is currently taking place. It has been marked in white. This trend line has already provided support twice and was also resistance. Therefore, it is likely that the market valuation will oscillate in its area for some time.
What does the on-chain data say about it?
The number of non-zero Bitcoin addresses has reached its highest level in 6 months. At this point, it is already at 38,483,397 units. Although we do not see a new ATH in this case, the trend remains upward.
On the other hand, the amount of Bitcoin stored on exchanges and ready for immediate sale has been steadily declining and stands at 2,444,633.654 BTC. This is the lowest in over 3 years. Therefore, we can assume that most investors expect further increases, gradually withdrawing their resources to safe portfolios.
At what stage of the cycle are we currently?
Assuming that Bitcoin’s increases are of a recurring nature and we are not currently experiencing a super-cycle, it looks like the current bull market has the right to end a little later than the end of the year. Looking at least at the Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss chart, we see that we are still in the “Optimism” phase. This is characterized by sustained gains that pick up momentum after entering the “Greed” phase to end the rally in “Euphoria”.
However, one should not lose vigilance. Important macroeconomic data can affect the price, causing significant increases. They can also have the opposite effect. The current global uncertainty has the right to trigger a premature end to the cycle as well.