On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin – September 2021

On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin - September 2021

Mid-September 2021, is a key moment for the further development of the Bitcoin price. It is at this point that we observe the golden cross. This is a good time to look at the on-chain data in more detail.

The golden cross

Let’s start with the on-chain data, the arrival of which we mentioned in the previous analysis. The golden cross, resulting from the intersection of the 50-day (green line) and 200-day (yellow line) moving averages, is just taking place. For many market watchers, this is the ultimate confirmation of the ongoing bull market. However, keep in mind that this is a lagging indicator, motivated by Bitcoin’s rise from areas below $30,000 to the $53,000 level. Nevertheless, historically this type of event has resulted in a continuation of the move.

September 7 declines – who was selling?

Let’s also take a look at the recent declines and investor behavior during them. Believing the tools provided by WhaleMap (Twitter: @whale_map), we can see that they were caused by whale movement. We are talking about portfolios that made purchases fairly recently, when the value of BTC oscillated below $40,000. So if we were to look at the Hodl Waves chart, we might see a sell-off of short-term investors, usually associated with young and weak hands. Meanwhile, we are seeing moves in the portfolios of more experienced market players.

whale map.jpg

The area of most frequent market hand changes

Will Clemente (Twitter: @WClementeIII), on the other hand, shares with us a chart showing the key areas of token distribution. As we can see, BTC is currently trading in the third historically largest of these. The total value of exchanges made in this space, is as high as 9.63% at the moment. The highest trading volume is represented by the candle located around $49,000. The next area is the zone between $53,000 and $59,000. It coincides with the previous indications, presented by us in the technical analyses.

wymiany bitcoinów.png

Daily active addresses

Looking in turn at the data provided by Santiment, we see that the number of daily active BTC addresses does not change significantly. It fluctuates between the area of 640 thousand, to slightly exceed the level of 1 million in the peaks of recent days. This is the zone that Bitcoin has maintained almost continuously since mid-May, which is exactly 4 months ago.

daily active adresses.jpg

Wallets with a minimum of one Bitcoin

The accumulation process is perfectly reflected by Glassnode data. As the chart below shows, wallets with a minimum of 1 BTC in their holdings have reached their highest point in 3 months. As the chart shows, in the middle of September we have exactly 808,634 of them. This data indicates a positive market sentiment, which is constantly maintained.

Number of Addresses Holding 1+ Coins just reached a 3-month high of 808,634.jpg

The above figures are worth comparing with others, concerning the holders of a minimum of 0.01 BTC. It has not been known for a long time that the smallest investors are often responsible for dynamic price movements when they crowd the market. As the chart below shows, we are experiencing a significant movement here as well. There are now 9,142,315 holders of at least a hundredth of Bitcoin, and this value represents the highest in 4 months.

Number of Addresses Holding 0.01+ Coins just reached a 4-month high of 9,142,315.jpg

The balance on the exchanges

Finally, it is worth looking at the amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges. These units have very often triggered successive violent avalanches of sell-offs. Meanwhile, the observed data gives a lot of optimism. We have not seen such a low amount since September 2018 and it is exactly 2,463,815.892 BTC. In the long run, this has the power to push the Bitcoin price towards new highs.

Balance on Exchanges just reached a 3-year low of 2,463,815.892 BTC.jpg

Picture of Łukasz


Market Analyst

Disclaimer: Blockbulletin does not take accountability of investments based on the information of the website. We highly advice readers to make extensive research prior to any invest

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