A new study by expert firm K33 Research sheds new light on the cryptocurrency market and expectations for ETFs. Analysts Vetle Lunde and Anders Helseth suggest that the market is underestimating the potential impact that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF could have. Despite the increasing chance that applications will be approved, current Bitcoin prices remain relatively low.
Bitcoin ETF spot potential
According to K33 Research, approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could bring a “huge inflow” of capital and a significant increase in demand for Bitcoin. If the ETF is rejected, the effects on Bitcoin prices would be much less significant, according to the researchers.
Lunde and Helseth also criticize the current outlook for approving spot ETFs. They point to predictions by James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg ETF, who estimate a 75% chance of approving a spot Bitcoin ETF within a year.
According to the researchers, the cryptocurrency market is currently a market where demand rather than supply decides. Therefore, they believe that not accumulating Bitcoin at the current price level may be unwise. They cite as an argument the recent rise in the Nasdaq-100 index, which is often seen as an indicator of market risk appetite.
Ethereum also with potential
K33 Research also focuses on the future of Ethereum (ETH) and predicts that it could surpass Bitcoin in the coming months. Researchers link this to expectations of ETFs based on Ether futures. Like Bitcoin, which gained in value after the launch of its first futures-based ETF, Ether may follow a similar growth path. A decision on an ETF based on Ether futures is expected in mid-October, and experts believe it has a chance of SEC approval.
Recently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced a delay in the decision-making process for seven proposals for bitcoin cash ETFs. Former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton expressed understanding for the delay, arguing that it is in line with the court’s guidelines and the need for careful risk assessment and regulation in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin ETF spot is inevitable
Clayton stressed that the SEC must distinguish between securities and other cryptocurrency assets, including stablecoins. He also pointed out that other regulators are also grappling with this issue. When asked about the approval of bitcoin ETFs, he avoided a direct answer, but stressed that BTC is not a security, and investors are very interested in easy access to it. In addition, reputable financial service providers are eager to launch Bitcoin-related products, making approval of a Bitcoin ETF inevitable.
