The beginning of July is a time when bitcoin is behaving in a rather sluggish manner. Consolidation in the resistance zone continues. Nevertheless, a potentially worrisome event is on the horizon, one that haunts the chart almost regularly during the holiday periods.
Bitcoin on the weekly chart
Bitcoin’s weekly chart, compared to the previous analysis, brought by far the least amount of volatility. On it we see that the leading cryptocurrency has lost 1.5% of its value. The RSI still maintains a very pronounced bearish divergence, which in the long term has the right to influence the price to retreat even deeper. Nevertheless, the indicator nominally remains at a very healthy level of 61. Recall that as long as it is above the 50 level, it is in bullish control territory. So drops in the value of BTC of even a few thousand dollars will not cause a loss of positive momentum.
Nevertheless, in order to talk about the continuation of growth, the level of $32,300 must be defeated and maintained. It is the one that is seen as key resistance from a technical point of view.
Bitcoin on the daily chart
Looking at the daily chart, it is hard to resist the impression that a strong move is coming. After all, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing to long unseen levels. Looking back, the last time such a small divergence between them was recorded was in early January this year, just before the rally that has been underway so far. In the meantime, the chart is experiencing an interesting phenomenon, as there is a golden cross between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. This fact has not always heralded an upward price breakout, but if other bullish factors accumulate, it may be supportive of the upside.
A disturbing phenomenon – will there be a bearish cross of the Hash Ribbons?
While the Bollinger Bands are clearly narrowing, heralding volatility, the Hash Ribbons indicator may determine its direction. This is potentially the most worrisome phenomenon currently occurring on the chart. It relates to the condition of miners and the profitability of Bitcoin mining. Thus, Hash Ribbons is close to a bearish cross, a situation in which the cost of mining is higher than the revenue. It is interesting to note, however, that this phenomenon almost regularly occurs during the summer months. However, if one were to look at history, it does not always herald declines, and often consolidations. However, it is difficult to speak here of a potential flattening of the movement when other indicators suggest a readiness to break out.
The condition of Hash Ribbons will, of course, be watched. The death cross has not yet been confirmed. Instead, we will inform when it is. This applies to both the daily and weekly charts. Then we will also discuss in detail the impact of this phenomenon on the price of the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin’s dominance behaves as predicted
According to our earlier prediction, the 52% level of BTC dominance, has become local resistance. The ongoing decline, is a confirmation of the bearish divergence observed on the RSI indicators. The retreat of Bitcoin’s dominance value to the 50% level, or even to the 100-day moving average, is most reasonable. The ADX indicator confirms the exhaustion of the movement, cooling down very strongly. Thus, we maintain the thesis that the current time may prove fruitful for selected altcoins.
